Legislative: the issue of the 1st round in the 1st constituency of Haute-Vienne

Will the first constituency of Haute-Vienne confirm the arrival of MP Nupes at the Bourbon Palace? The new movement, which unites various left-wing tendencies, should shake MP Sophie Baudouin-Ubier in this area, based on the political history of the territory.

Flashback. In Upper Vienna in the 2000s, if he was the deputy mayor who was considered invincible, it was Alain Rode. In power since 1990 in Limoges City Hall, this symbolic figure of the left was elected deputy from 1981 without a break until 2012-2017.

The first circus and on the left is a flawless story. But since 2014, socialist hegemony has abruptly ceased. After 102 years in office as mayor of Limoges, PS falls. Beaten in the municipal elections, Alain Rode decides to leave the hand of the deputation in three years. He was replaced by a growing figure in the PS at the time, Laurent Lafayette, to run in the parliamentary elections.

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But in 2017, voters decided to write a completely different story and assign the place, which was usually transferred to the PS, to a new face: Sophie Baudouin-Ubier.

Does the starting bonus play?

In five years, what are his chances of keeping his seat against seven other candidates? Will he have a day off bonus on Sunday, June 12, during the first round of the parliamentary elections?

Sophie Baudouin-Ubier enjoys two assets : A candidate unknown to the general public is now one of the only ones (with Elizabeth Focon for LO) whose name speaks for the county, the others are newcomers to politics. Proof of unprecedented political renewal.

The second and not the last advantage, the LREM candidate, the only one who represented himself among the three elected in 2017, did not register any dissent. This is not the case in the second and third districts. Undoubted advantage …

However, if Sophie Baudouin-Ubier does not risk scattering votes, then her main competitor, too.

What are the dynamics on the left?

Damien Mode, a France Insoumise activist who was nominated by Nupes, is not suffering from a dissident candidacy.

In 2017, the forces of the left were dispersed, but in the first round received 37.06% of the vote. In the second round, 4,000 votes separated Daniel Suri (LFI) from Sophie Baudouin-Ubier. This time to gather around Jean-Luc Melanchon in national logicwill the left allow Damien Mode, Parliamentary Attaché François Ruffen, to leave the game?

“The institutional left has collapsed in this district,” said Thomas Marty, a doctor of political science and a member of Greco (a group of research and study societies in the west of the center). “But there is still a left-wing base, and there is an important network of militants. If the FP and environmentalists work together, there may be a force that will be sustained and developed. »

It remains to be seen whether Damien Mode will really benefit from the dynamics of the militants, and whether he can count on wider support, while the PS does not seem to want to campaign in his favor.

What is the weight of the far right?

Limugo’s lawyer, Jean Valier-Viale, a candidate from the Union of the Right and the Independent Center, said he could take advantage of the traditional left’s lack of enthusiasm for the electoral alliance.

He relies on his territorial roots – the cradle of his family in Saint-Leonard de Noble – to mobilize his candidacy outside the parties that invested or supported him: Republicans, centrists, UDI and the rural movement.

But we must also count on the weight of the far right that broke through in the presidential election. On the other hand, the nationalist camp is splitting between Christian Gedu for the National Rally and Fabien Marche for the Reconquête.
Two candidates are added, one without a label, lawyer Stephanie Tambo, and the other from the animalist party, David Provo.

None of the candidates has a local mandate. “Elections are becoming disembodied, and that doesn’t help interest voters,” said Thomas Marty. Retention will again be one of the factors in this equation with a few unknowns.

Frank Lagier and Helen Pommier

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