Paris: movement to daily high before closing – 08/03/2022 at 17:11

(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris stock market rose more than 0.8% to about 6,465 points, the highest of the day, apparently helped by the Nasdaq, which climbed +1.5% above 12,500.

Investors seem to be trying to “hold the bottom line” while the tech is growing much faster than expected since mid-June: +13% from lows, it’s very impressive, many managers are mechanically invested in the face of an increase of this magnitude.

The same is true for the S&P500, which has recovered more than 10% in 6 weeks.

But if indices do rise, it is often in a sidereal vacuum, with the CAC40 rising from 6,400 around 10am to 6,460 with less than €1 billion traded (the SBF-120 returns to a “round” estimate of 5,000) and the CAC approaching the final 40 minutes, when less than 1.5 billion euros were exchanged.

There are no more sellers in Paris after the overflow of 6200, the reversal of polarity at 5800 and 6460, against the current all “macro” data, which has literally extinguished any desire to resist a few influential “trend-making” operators. .

Growth is the rule across Europe with +1% for the Euro-Stoxx50 (the lack of volume there is as striking as in Paris), but London (+0.5%) or Frankfurt (+0.5%) lag behind.

Wall Street reopened with a bang the day after China’s controversial and contentious visit, with the Dow Jones +0.80% up and the S&P500 +1% up at 4,130, despite a +5 point rise in US rates to 2.791%.

The “numbers of the day” are mixed in the United States, first and foremost with the worst: US private sector activity contracted in July for the first time since June 2020, according to the S&P Global composite PMI index, which ended at 47.7 (revised from 47, 5 in the previous estimate), after 52.3 in the previous month.

A pleasant surprise, however, was the increase in orders for US industry by +2% (according to the Commerce Department, they increased by +1.8% in May).

For its part, industrial supplies rose 1.1% in June after rising 2.1% in the previous month.

Including a 0.4% increase in inventories, the inventory-to-shipment ratio was broadly flat at 1.46 versus 1.47 previously.

For its part, Germany returned to a trade surplus in June, according to Destatis, at 6.4 billion euros, after a deficit of 0.8 billion the previous month.

The Federal Statistics Office explains that this return to positive territory is the result of a 4.5% increase in German exports, well above the slight increase in imports of 0.2% compared to May.

But it’s not all good news: this morning investors learned of a decline in the S&P Global composite PMI in the Eurozone.

Activity there slowed from 52.5 in June to 51.7 in July, reflecting a third straight month of contraction in private sector growth, the slowest pace since April 2021.

The final so-called “composite” index of overall activity in the region came in at 49.9 last month, down from 52 in June, marking the first decline in activity since February 2021.

Industrial output recorded its biggest contraction since May 2020, while activity continued to pick up in the services sector, but at the slowest pace in six months.

“Very high inflation in Europe is clearly having a negative impact on demand, with both service providers and manufacturers reporting greater customer reluctance to place orders,” said Joe Hayes, senior economist at S&P Global.

The trend is identical in the eurozone’s private sector, the index in question also fell sharply in July, as a surge in inflation dampens an expected recovery in consumption after the lifting of health restrictions, monthly PMI surveys showed on Wednesday.

Among the “market drivers” of the day, we can also mention the very “hawkish” speeches in the face of inflation by three members of the Fed in 24 hours: after Charles Evans (Chicago Fed) and Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed), James Bullard (St. Louis Fed) should affirm that firm and decisive action is needed in the face of inflation in the United States.

In Europe, our OATs are trending +7 points to 1.445%, Bunds +9 points to 0.873%, Italian BTPs are flat at 3.04% (spread narrowing to +217 from the Bund).

Finally, OPEC disappoints by announcing an increase of only +100,000 barrels in September, while Europe desperately needs to make up for the amount of oil it has decided to divest itself, rising +0.8% to $100.7 a barrel.

A flurry of results releases continues in Europe, including announcements from BMW, Infineon and Siemens Helathineers.

In France this morning, several heavyweights of the caliber of AXA, Société Générale or Veolia published their accounts.

The resurgence of geopolitical risk should also curb investor appetite in the tense context of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.

Beijing announced last night that the People’s Liberation Army would conduct large-scale military exercises and training activities, including live ammunition training, in the waters and airspace of the China Sea in the coming days.

Meanwhile, falling oil prices should continue to weigh on the energy sector, with US light crude oil (WTI) continuing to fall to $94.4 a barrel this morning.

In securities news, AXA reports net income for the first six months of 2022 increased by 3% to 4.11 billion euros, while operating profit increased by 8% (+7% organically) to 3.92 billion (ie 1, 65 euros per share).

Veolia (-2%) reports group net current revenue of €528 million for the first half of 2022 and EBITDA of €2.95 billion, up 6.1% at constant scale and exchange rates compared to the combined company Veolia-Suez a year earlier.

Societe Generale (+3%) publishes underlying share of group net profit (excluding the impact of the exit from Russia, which represented a pre-tax loss of 3.3 billion) increased by 11.5% to 1.5 billion euros for the second quarter of 2022 .

Finally, Saint-Gobain indicates that it has successfully launched a €1.5 billion bond issue in three tranches of €500 million each with maturities of three, six and ten years and coupons of 1.625%, 2.125% and 2.625% respectively.

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