“Short-term recovery is possible, but there will be no real recovery until we know when inflation will be kept under control,” – Chat

Kimmo: Hi, Mr. Lantuan, about Albioma, do you advise to wait, what are the reasons? Thank you.

Dennis Lantuan: Hello everyone, I hope you are well! Better than Cac 40, in any case, which loses almost 2% and even almost 3.5% with an episode of outbreak, it is quite rare.

I see that our moderator has already asked the first question … Bravo … Well, then let’s start with that.

For Albioma, this is in fact a confirmation of speculation that has been on the market for several weeks, the price has also begun to admire.

This advice to wait is systematic in investing before the operation. There is always something that can happen in between, such as a fund that will increase its capital by buying stocks to block the exit from the rating.

When you choose your institution, it is very difficult, if not impossible, to go back.

In any case, with regard to this proposal, it seems attractive to us, with a surcharge of more than 50% compared to the levels before the start of speculation.

€ 50.84 offered by KKR (€ 50 + dividends of 84 cents), equivalent to the peak reached as a result of the January 2021 promotion, the top of the bubble that characterized renewable energy players in 2020.

The former Séchilienne’s record was set in 2007 (another century on the stock market …) at € 62.95.

The price of Albioma is moving slightly below the level of supply, which tends to show, at least for now, that there will be no inflated rates a priori.

JPMarkan: Sartorius Stedim is the undisputed leader in biopreparation equipment. After doubling every year for 3 years, it has lost more than 35% since 31/12. How is this possible? Still save?

Let’s continue the value of the blow, we will go to the market later.

You are absolutely right, Sartorius Stedim is a well-developed stock and a leader in its markets. It can be compared to Eurofins Scientific or others for its strong prospects.

But today, as we know, the environment is not favorable for this type of growth stocks, as well as for technology stocks.

In fact, they are the first victims of the prospect of tightening monetary policy faster and stronger than expected to counter inflation, which may seem uncontrollable. Let’s hope this is not the case, because the whole market would suffer even more.

Basically, I think it’s one of the companies you can trust, I don’t see financial frustration on the horizon, just an unfavorable context.

If your line of securities is not too large and you have cash, there is nothing to stop you from strengthening the line if the stock falls even lower.

I know Remy doesn’t like averaging down. But when it comes to a company with guaranteed high potential, this is a “good” declining average, which makes it possible to reduce the cost of the name, which we are sure will start from the beginning after that, when the stock market environment becomes more favorable. We are not dealing at all with a company that is experiencing difficulties.

Phil: Hi, Dennis. How do you explain the excessive volatility (for me) on Lisi. What is your idea of ​​this in the medium term? Thank you.

I completely agree with you … I am disappointed with the current exchange rate of the Forest in the stock market, in which I strongly believe. Even today, with the fall of more than 6% in stocks …

However, Lisi is ideally positioned as a supplier of equipment in the aeronautics sector, accounting for 49% of its operations and which continues to benefit from the gradual recovery seen since the end of the second quarter of 2021. For almost a year now, when in just one year the title still loses 25% …

As for another large field of activity for which Lisi is a supplier of equipment, the automotive sector, this sector is in a much better position than a year ago …

I don’t know, maybe inflation, and therefore margin … Yes, I think it can only be so. In the following pictures we will have to watch this closely. In any case, I believe that the sanction is tough, very tough at the moment …

Julian: Hello. The market suffers (in part) from less flexible Fed policies. We can hope that the current economic slowdown will ease his hawkish policies. Historically, do we see markets progressing in this hope, or do we have to wait for the Fed to officially change its language before we see markets change course? Cordially.

At the same time, I’m going to answer devref98, which asks me that the stock market is falling and corporate results are good for the first quarter.

Yes, they are good, so they are reassuring about the impact of inflation on supplies and the war in Ukraine.

But this is not enough, because the operators are dominated by monetary policy, the owner of the stock market trend.

It is difficult to rise today, when we expect that in two days the Fed’s decision on its rates will prevent such a surge in inflation that consumer prices rose by 8.5% in March for the year, a record …

Immediate elimination of inflation, yes, even if it means plunging the economy into recession if it is fast. Because the main enemy of the stock market, and the economy in general, is stagflation with a double threat of stagnant growth and sustained inflation.

An alarming sign that appeared on the bond market no later than Monday, the yield on US 10-year TIPS bonds adjusted for inflation reached 0.5%, the highest level since March 2020. Now yes, inflation has prevailed. and this is a priority for major central banks. The ECB’s turn is coming soon.

So I’m not a positive or short-term buyer. This is very good, doesn’t the proverb say: sell in May and go?

I quote here JC O’Hara of MKM Partners, who quoted this on CNBC today: the term, however, still has several reasons for concern. We believe that the long-term technical indicators of the shares are not oversold enough to guarantee a strong buy signal. We also believe that managers have begun to re-evaluate the stock market on the basis of factors such as “recession”. If so, we are still overrated. »

A short-term recovery is possible, but there will be no real recovery until we know when inflation will be brought under control.

Romain: Hello. You recently sent subscribers a newspaper wrapped in plastic wrap to meet future environmental standards, and then retreated, I get it again with plastic. Why this departure? Cdt.

Yes, it is true, for these future standards we now send, where possible, our weekly papers, not plastic ones. A priori you live in an area of ​​France where there are still some problems. If you would like a more complete explanation, I can send it to our customer support team, who will provide you with more information. I will give you their e-mail, do not hesitate: [email protected]

Giorgio: Hi, can I still buy a Michelin after the recent rebound? Is it too late?

Let’s finish with a michelin, another value that I also like.

Especially because of the great confidence of the tire manufacturer in its ability to manage prices.

As Remy said this weekend in our week, equipment manufacturers are separate manufacturers. Their customers are, of course, car manufacturers for the original equipment business (these are tires for new cars), but this is primarily for the secondary market, which is the main part of the business, end users: individuals, companies, carriers (

Under these conditions, the presence of a strong brand allows for a significant increase in prices. This price capacity is one of the most important indicators for companies this year, in times of high inflation.

I have to go to our final report at the end of this chat hour. We will meet on our site in less than an hour. In the meantime, I wish you a great week and follow the Fed’s decision on Wednesday night. You will find Rémi for your greatest pleasure on Monday at 16:00. See you soon with a new cat.

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