Stock market: high risk week

China spoiled the mood a bit this morning. Thus, the CAC 40 is not taking full advantage of the US bullish rebound on Friday. Then it must be said that the market will have a lot to digest this week, the Gafam results, some statistics that are still playable, oh my, inflation is still there and recession is coming, and the ECB, but especially the Fed next week;

The idea behind the current bounce is that we know almost everything. Central banks will raise their rates, yes. We even know how much and how. So it’s integrated.

If the market wants to make a sustained rebound, it will need two things: first, for the gafam results to be sustainable and for no one to be cautious about the predictions displayed.

Second, central banks are raising rates, but are starting to influence the discourse by saying they will think about raising rates less strongly and less quickly after the midterms. We have a few voices in that direction, but the big FED voices are still hawkish, so it’s a start, but not enough to impact thinking right away.

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So that’s a lot of ifs. And we feel that the market is nervous and divided. On the one hand, we are afraid that the market will be disappointed again and take it back. On the other hand, the portfolios are very negative in terms of performance and we’re cash protected and clients aren’t taking their balls off yet because the recession isn’t coming. Suddenly, we become a hot potato to not miss the slightest bounce, and we react with a quarter turn, multiplying volatility.

Therefore, all this creates a lot of market noise.

And in this noise, you must discipline yourself to close the hatches and stick to your plans.

We talk about it in the video

video stock market

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CAC 40 analysis

CAC came back to test and failed in the area of ‚Äč‚Äč6130 points, it will need to cross to open 6220-6250 points and hence a long bounce. Above 6000, we remain positive on this bounce, but we also sense fragility. Below 6000, we would become more cautious, but as long as we hold 5900, the structure remains healthy, only below we would fear a seller’s takeover. with tct above 6030 i keep playing bounce extension

Graphseo stock wallet

I always remain positive but cautious in the face of volatility. We had some good rebounds. What would be healthy would be a low tide to allow the structures to get in good shape for a better finish to the year. This should coincide with the hope that inflation is falling, it is only a matter of time, and that central banks are closer to the end than the beginning of hawkishness. Before we fear an even bigger economic downturn in 2023.

Long story short, I’m playing the sub, hoping to get out of the yo-yo a bit. I remain focused on the US remaining reactive and avoiding disruptions in all directions after the European shutdown, because the US usually chooses to reverse course.

Chinese stocks are capitulating, so I’m going to take some losses on the hello group I just put together. I must have mistakenly believed that the endowment of Xi Jinping was already well known to everyone, and there was no question with zero COVID-19, Taiwan and a discourse that would match what we already know.

All deals are published in the Academy in real time

Graphseo portfolio Dynamic trading on the stock market

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Julian

Note: All deals are negotiated, announced and shared in real time on L’Acad√©mie des Graphs.

On the public site here, the wallet is updated once a day around noon. Positions accepted or agreed during the day after publication are stipulated directly in the next day’s article. At the end of each month and at the end of the year, a separate article is published to review the results for the month and the year. The portfolio reflects my consolidated personal beliefs (Zonebourse portfolio) and is not an invitation to buy or sell.

Indicators 2021: +122%; 2020: +121%; 2019: +79%; 2018: +21%; 2017: +24%; 2016: +12%; 2015: +45%; 2014: +30%; 2013: +72%…

Since 2008, the average annual efficiency has been +40%. With increased capital, I take less risk today and aim for +20% per year depending on market conditions. For me, the value gain represented by that +20% is important, not just the percentage gain. You don’t manage a 6 figure portfolio like you manage a 7 figure‚Ķ

My capital and my investment horizon for each security are of course not the same as yours. The portfolio is intended to share my beliefs with you on a daily basis in full transparency, but is not intended to be performed. My goal is to teach you how to catch your fish, not give them to you. This reflects my opinion/opinion only and is not a recommendation.

Commissions are 0.10% per order or 0.2% per feedback (plus TTF if applicable) which are deducted when the position is closed to obtain the total performance of each position. Total performance without commission. Any withdrawals are reported, especially when it comes time to pay income tax. The vast majority of profits have been reinvested since 2008. A one-time withdrawal/transfer has been announced. Thus the performance is clean.

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