What do the polls say two days before the first round?

“Melenchon Prime Minister”. Will the strategy of the New People’s Ecological and Social Union (Nupes), which is to break this slogan, bear fruit? A few hours before the end of the official campaign of the first round of parliamentary elections, this Friday, at midnight on June 10, Nupes and the presidential majority are going to the polls. According to a poll by Sopra Steria for Radio France and France Télévisions published on Thursday (June 9th), the left-wing union is even at the top of its voting intentions.

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La Nupes accounts for 28% of these intentions (+0.5 points compared to the previous poll on June 3-6), ahead of Together !, a coalition of the presidential majority, MoDem, Horizons and Agir (27% – 1). point). In third place, the National Rally (RN) received 19.5% of the vote.

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Participation can range from 44% to 48%. Although the content was 51.3% in 2017, it may reach a new record.

Intersection of ensemble curves! and Nupes

The results of the poll should still be distrusted, as they are only a snapshot of the intention to vote for “t”. But the latter show that the dynamics are on the side of Nupes.

In the Ifop survey for LCI from 1is In June, the presidential majority was slightly in the lead (27%), ahead of the left-wing coalition (25%) and the National Rally (21%). The score, which rose in a few weeks, allowed Nupes to overtake Together! in some polls. 25% were included in the Elabe 1 surveyis June for BFMTV and “l’Express” [PDF]the left-wing union alternates with the presidential majority (24.5%) and the RN (22%).

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Nupes and together! now in a handkerchief: according to an Ipsos / Cevipof poll for The World published on Wednesday, June 8, the presidential majority and Nupes are almost equal. Together! accumulates 28% of forecasts (stable statistics), ahead of Nupes, who receives 27.5% of voting intentions (+ 0.5% of the point). The national rally loses a point, setting its score at 20%.

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Macron deprived of an absolute majority?

At the end of the second round on Sunday, June 19, electoral institutions believe that the presidential party and its allies may not meet the 289 deputies needed to obtain an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Harris thus gives from 285 to 335 seats for Together! and Ifop is counting on From 250 to 290 seats.

According to a Sopra Steria poll on June 9, Nupes can expect to win 175 to 215 seats out of 577 seats in the National Assembly. Total !, from 260 to 300 seats. RN will be from 20 to 50.

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Bryce Teinturier, Deputy Director of Ipsos, however emphasizes France 24, “fragility” these forecasts. “It all depends on the reports” votes between the two rounds, p “From 40 to 50 seats [qui] can break from block to block “he warns.

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Results that may call into question the Macronists’ absolute majority in the Assembly. According to a YouGov poll conducted for HuffPost on June 6 and 7, only 31% of respondents, along with all the trends, believe that Emmanuel Macron will be able to get the required 289 deputies. In the case of a relative majority, supporters of the head of state in the Assembly will be forced to find opposition deputies ready to vote for the bills.

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